Wow! Brian Coleman calls for One Barnet to be Scrapped

Today's Barnet Press has an article by Brian Coleman which calls for the One Barnet to be scrapped which I have reproduced below:

"Something has happened in the last few months in Barnet. Residents have been taking an interest in the way Barnet Council is proposing to operate in future , the so-called One Barnet scheme.

One Barnet, if it goes ahead, would fundamentally change the way the council is run. It is a New Labour idea - however, the concept of council, police, fire brigade, NHS and the voluntary sector delivering services jointly fell apart as the cuts agenda focused minds and turned opinion against grandiose reorganisation.
However Barnet Council ploughed on regardless of the changing political environment.

The opinions of sceptical Conservative councillors were brushed aside by promises from officers (and the revolving door of endless consultants) of massive savings.

The fact that most Conservative councillors had their doubts was lost as the trade unions bombarded councillors with emails attempting to protect their members terms and conditions. This campaign just drove Conservative councillors into the arms of the officers on the basis that if the unions were against it the scheme must be good news.

Council leader Richard Cornelius, a One Barnet sceptic, met with officers in January and the promise of savings seduced him. The rest of the Conservatives, including me, fell into line.

Then in August came the bombshell of a possible of a joint venture, something never mentioned before, and the leader of the council's anger could be heard all the way from his holiday home in France.

Then followed the unexplained sudden departure of Barnet's chief executive Nick Walkley. Why leave if One Barnet is going to be a stunning success?

Many Conservative councillors feel they are powerless to stop this officer-driven juggernaut or as one senior Conservative put it - we are lemmings heading for the cliff.

The council needs to dump this flawed scheme and introduce a proper strategy which assesses where services belong, whether that is the private sector, shared services with other boroughs, the voluntary sector or indeed occasionally in-house - a mixed economy is what is needed. For example, I don't know any councillors who agree we should privatise the planning department.

Conservatives are pragmatic and anyway the concept of One Barnet is fundamentally un-Conservative and ignores localism. It is totally New Labour, in fact.

The time has come to dump One Barnet and return to core local government values and make sure this particular turkey does not see Christmas!" 

 For such a critical article to be published just days before a vote of no confidence in Richard Cornelius is to be held shows what a mess the whole One Barnet outsourcing programme has become. It also indicates that Brian is not on his own in being concerned about One Barnet when he quotes his fellow conservative councillors as being sceptical. I noted with interest his reference to the views of councillors being "brushed aside by promises from officers and the revolving door of endless consultants of massive savings."

What surprises me most is why it has taken them so long to come to the realisation that this scheme is bonkers and that it risk the financial future of the borough.

Richard, do the right thing and pull the plug on One Barnet now.

If you live in Barnet the Billion Pound Gamble is a MUST see

On Monday 22nd October at 6pm, the world premiere of a new film, Barnet - The Billion Pound Gamble will be shown at the iconic Phoenix Cinema in East Finchley. The film has been made by acclaimed US film director Charles Honderick and exposes the chaos being wrought by the policies of Barnet Council.

Local residents are interviewed and explain just how difficult life has become. A family with a child suffering severe disability tells how no appropriate accommodation has been provided for eleven years. Users of day centres explain how cuts to transport have affected them and how they get charged £1.20 for a cup of Nescafe. Local traders tell the tale of how the parking policies have forced them to the brink. Award winning film director Ken Loach explains how outsourcing destroys local economies. A host of experts explain how the One Barnet programme is doomed to failure, it is a Billion Pound Gamble, where private companies will pick up fat cheques, local residents will get shoddy services and local taxpayers will be left to pick up the bill.

The film also features shocking scenes filmed inside the Town Hall as uncaring local councillors dismiss the concerns of residents and laugh as important decisions, which will cause misery for thousands, are passed without proper debate.

The official trailer for the film has been released today and can be viewed on the film website - http://www.billionpoundgamble.co.uk

One Barnet - Generator of Social Despair

I watched some of George Osbourne's speech today and I was overcome with an impending sense of doom and despair at the shortsighted nature of his solutions. Cutting benefits to the unemployed is treating the symptom not the problem and the problem is not enough decent paid jobs. In Barnet, the Council has set upon a madcap scheme called One Barnet which, over the next 12 months, will outsource 90% of the council's workforce. Some of these jobs will go to other boroughs in London like Brent and Harrow, some will go to other towns and cities where pay rates are lower and some may end up going to India where pay rates are rock bottom.

But what happens to all those Council staff who are made redundant or have their terms and conditions cut - they end up on benefits because at the minute there are very few new jobs in the private sector. In Barnet this wholesale demolition of the workforce will end us costing us, as a society, a great deal more. It will also have an impact on community cohesion. Cutting benefits will not make people any more able to find a job if there aren't any. It will just make their situation worse.

In Barnet we have just one business park where the Council's offices are located. This could have been used as a springboard to generate more high skill and well paid jobs in Barnet. Instead the council has pushed through proposals to allow hundreds of new executive homes to be built on part of the site. Short term gain but constantly diminishing the potential jobs pool. Many years ago I lived in a northern city where the council had a business development unit specifically targeting new business to come into the city. They brought in many high tech and well paid jobs. But what about Barnet - its not even on their radar.

If we want to get people off benefits we need to create opportunities not simply outsource jobs to the cheapest possible provider. Sadly, like Mr Osbourne, our ruling group in Barnet have such a short term perspective they fail to see the problems they are stacking up for the future. One Barnet is the wrong policy at the wrong time.

Graph of Doom - Fact or Fantasy - An Alternative Perspective

Barnet Council have been pushing a chart (set out below) which has gained the rather unpleasant title “The Graph of Doom” to show how the Council will run out of money for any services other than Adult Social Care and Children’s Services by 2030. This chart has been used in Cabinet documents to justify the need for the One Barnet Outsourcing programme. It has also gained traction in the national press where it is seen as a revelatory document which we should all be accepting as the gospel according to St. Barnet.

As someone who is a great believer in the ‘sniff test’, I sniffed this chart and detected an odour, something just didn’t seem right.  I look at a lot of charts and business plans and over the years I have found that it is very unwise to accept things on face value simply because someone tells you it is right. I do not claim to be a local government finance expert but I have tried to take a logical and analytical approach. 

 As a starting point I thought it was essential to understand just what where the assumptions behind this chart and what were the figures they had included. After a series of email, Freedom of Information requests appeals and discussions I finally received all of the data.

I have set out below the assumptions used by Barnet Council to come up with the figures followed by an alternative view of how they might be interpreted. I have assumed throughout that all figures are net of inflation

I start with Net Budget, the line at the top of the chart. Barnet states that between now and 2017 they have assumed that there will continue to be cuts in Central Government funding. True until 2015 when we have a general election but unclear if it will continue if there is a change of government.  However, after 2017 no one knows what will happen so Barnet have assumed that the cap of £277 million of Central Government Funding and Council Tax will remain static until 2032. 

I would seriously challenge if that is a credible scenario. Are we realistically saying that government will not increase funding for 15 years?  I also asked about the growth of income from Council Tax revenue. Barnet say that at the minute growth in council tax income is equalised by the government reducing their level of grant. However that rule changes next year so boroughs may be able to keep some more of the Council Tax they raise. The Government have introduced the New Homes Bonus and Barnet have been allocated £3.13 million in the first two years but that does not appear to have been reflected in the assumptions. 

In Barnet there a number of major development schemes with the number of households is expected to reach 167,000 by 2026. This equates to a growth of around 1,800 households per annum every year. Assuming the average household will be in Council Tax Band D this would generate net income to Barnet of just over £2 million per annum rising by that rate every year till 2026. The Government may seek to recover some of that but given the assumption is that they are not going to provide any further increase in those 13 years is it realistic to also assume they will cut what would be an additional £26 million per annum before inflation by 2026.

 To underpin this argument I identified that Barnet have also assumed that the population will grow by 85,560 over the next 13 years which is an increase of 24%. Is it plausible to assume that the council can provide services to an extra 85,000 people with no extra money? That is like providing services to a town the size of Stevenage with no extra money. In my view this is simply not a rational assumption and undermines the credibility of the graph.

Next I looked at Children’s Services.  The current level is £57.57 million and is forecast to rise as the number of children in Barnet grows. However, in 2014/15 the costs rise by 5.42% and by 11% in 2015/16. This does not appear to be borne out by the population growth assumptions. We are currently at a peak for the 0-4 age group and that may be reflection that we also have a peak in the 25-34 age group, those most likely to have children.  Interestingly, if this is the prime group for producing children then we should be anticipating a decline in new births for the next 21 years from existing Barnet residents and the growth will only come from new residents moving in from outside the borough.

As such, a reasonable conclusion one could draw is that children’s growth will run at no more than the overall population growth. There is also no consideration of the impact of cutting housing benefit and changing the housing waiting list priorities (which favour people with a connection to the borough) on the growth of families in Barnet. These need further analysis and forecasting. I have therefore assumed that the cost of children’s services will grow by no more than the forecast in population growth.

For Adult Care Services the current budget is split between 4 categories. 17% is for voluntary organisations, supporting people and assessment budgets. 39% is for the under 75 budget, 32% is for the over 75 budget and 12% covers management and overhead costs not linked to the population growth. Included in the Barnet assumptions is a massive increase in 2015/16 of 25% above the standard population growth rate. This equates to just under £25 million and is attributed to the introduction of the Dilnot reforms. Given that the focus of this will be in the over 75 age group this suggests that the current budget of £31.5 million will increase by £25 million an increase of 79%. If you consider that Barnet’s over 75 population makes up 0.0577% of the over 75 population in England and that the Dilnot Commission estimate the total annual cost will be £1.7 billion that suggests that even if the local authority bears all of the cost and that central government bears none of the cost, that would be no more than £9.8 million increase for Barnet compared to the £25 million shown in the graph. I have maintained all of the Barnet adult care growth other than the excessive Dilnot Commission increase.

Based on all of the revised assumptions this shows that there is a narrowing of the surplus from £138.6 million in 2012/13 to £61.4 million in 2031/32. 

However, no consideration has been given to small real increases in Council Tax. The council held a “Corporate Plan Deliberative event” as part of the 2012/13 corporate plan and budget consultation. It showed that residents were not opposed to rises in council tax where the need was clearly communicated and transparently recorded. In general they did not want any further money spent on improving refuse collection, roads and pavements. Clearly Adults Care and children’s services do not fall into this category so it is reasonable to assume that if the need were explained to residents they might accept a small increase to fund these services. 

If you include a 1% annual real increase in council tax (which makes up 55% of the total net budget) the chart below illustrates that the gap drops from £138.6 million to £94.7 million. Still a decline, but it is a difference of just over £100 million per annum in 2031/32 between my assumptions and those used by Barnet. This 1% increase would also fall within the limit set by Government for council tax rises (assuming inflation rises by no more than 2.5%) before which there has to be a local referendum.

Overall, my analysis of the issue suggests that whilst there clearly is a challenge in the rising cost of adult and children’s services, it is not as significant as made out in the ‘Graph of Doom’ and should definitely not be met with dramatic cuts to services before all other options have been considered.  I have raised serious concerns about the assumptions Barnet have used and have put forward an alternative perspective. 

 I hope my revised ‘Graph of Choices’  starts a constructive and meaningful dialogue between the Council and residents into what choices we need to be taking to secure the best possible future for all of our residents.